Ontario, 2026 tax rules. Every figure is in today's dollars.
Scenario
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Median savings when you have both retired
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Highest monthly spending that holds up in 9 of 10 paths
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Median left at the end
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before tax on any remaining RRSP
How your savings could grow and shrink
Your combined savings each year across 1,000 simulated market paths.
Median pathMiddle half of paths8 of 10 paths
Where each year's money comes from
Before tax, if returns match your expected rate every year. CPP, OAS, pensions and rent are income. RRSP, TFSA and non-registered amounts are withdrawals from your savings. The part of each bar above the line goes to income tax, and anything left over is saved again.
What retiring earlier or later does
Chance the money lasts if you both shift your retirement by the same number of years, with everything else unchanged.
Which account to draw first
Each withdrawal order tested on the same 1,000 market paths. Automatic picks the best chance of the money lasting, and settles near-ties by what is left after tax: the median amount at the end, after tax on any RRSP still there. The order changes how much tax you pay, not what your investments earn.
Year by year
The same steady-return path as the income chart, from the year you have both retired. Savings are at the start of each year.
Balances by account
Each account at the start of the year, from today, on the same steady-return path as the table above. "Added" is sale cash, yearly savings and anything saved again. "Taken out" is what leaves your savings that year. "Growth" is what your investments earn after inflation.
What this simulator assumes
Everyone lives in Ontario. A joint scenario taxes each spouse on their own income; an individual scenario models one person on their own, with that person's accounts, their side of each property and its own spending figure. Tax uses the 2026 federal and Ontario brackets, the basic, age and pension income credits, the Ontario surtax and health premium, and the OAS recovery tax on income above $95,323. Brackets are assumed to keep pace with inflation.
The balances you enter are today's. The first year of the model is only the part of this calendar year that is left, so it gets that share of the expected return, of the swing, and of the year's saving and spending. Every later point on the charts is the start of a calendar year.
Each simulated year draws a return at random around your expected return, using the swing you set. All invested accounts earn the same return. Uninvested cash earns no interest, so it loses value to inflation. It is a rainy-day reserve and is left alone: it is used only if every other source has run out, and what remains counts in your final balances. Spending it triggers no tax.
In a joint scenario, pension income splitting is applied whenever it lowers your combined tax: up to half of workplace pension income at any age, and of RRSP or RRIF income from 65, moves to the lower-income spouse. RRSP withdrawals are drawn from whichever of you has the lower income first.
In a joint scenario, savings are drawn from the year you have both retired. Before that, the model assumes the spouse still working covers your spending, and it ignores any CPP, OAS or pension the retired spouse receives.
CPP is reduced 0.6% for each month it starts before 65 and raised 0.7% for each month after. OAS is $762.50 a month at 65 (October to December 2026), rises 0.6% for each month deferred, and rises 10% at 75.
Budget lines with an "until age" stop once the younger of you reaches that age, and the simulator's spending falls by that amount from then on. The down-year rule looks at the previous year's return before inflation: if the portfolio fell by at least the chosen percentage, that year's travel budget is skipped and the chosen share of it is spent at home, so spending drops by the rest. It applies only to the travel line and only while that line is in the budget.
The crash test forces the chosen fall, before inflation, into one year on every simulated path, replacing that year's random return. Everything else about the paths is unchanged, so the headline compares the same 1,000 futures with and without the crash.
Automatic tests the three withdrawal orders on the same 1,000 market paths and uses the one with the best chance your money lasts. Orders within half a percentage point of the best are treated as tied, and the tie goes to the one that leaves the most after tax, counting any RRSP still remaining as taxed all at once in the final year. It only chooses between these three orders, so it is not a full tax plan.
RRIF minimum withdrawals start at 71 using the CRA percentages. Cash you are forced to withdraw but don't need goes to your TFSAs (up to $7,000 a year each), then to non-registered savings.
Non-registered growth is taxed as a capital gain when you sell, at 50% inclusion. Each person's cost base starts at today's balance, and withdrawals come from each of you in proportion to your non-registered balances.
Rental income is entered for each of you, after expenses and before income tax. It keeps pace with inflation and is ignored in the years before savings are drawn. Each property's rent stops in the year it is sold. Sale cash is entered after commissions and tax and lands in the accounts you choose at the start of that year. RRSP and TFSA room is not checked. Sale cash put into an RRSP is deducted from that person's income once savings are being drawn, down to about the basic personal amount each year, with the unused part carried forward. Property values and any mortgage are not modelled.
Not included: what happens in a joint scenario after one of you dies (survivor benefits, and tax on one income), CPP sharing, spousal RRSPs, the Guaranteed Income Supplement, the Ontario low-income tax reduction, contribution room limits, investment fees, and tax on what you leave behind.